Buku Baru Epidemiologi Penyakit Tumbuhan

The Study of Plant Disease Epidemics

By: Laurence V. Madden, Gareth Hughes, and Frank van den Bosch

Chemical industry and plant breeders have forged fine tactical weapons; but only epidemiology sets the strategy.

J.E. Vanderplank

Epidemiology provides plant pathologists with refined and deepened knowledge of the behavior of diseases in the field for improved disease control or management.

J. Kranz

Chapter 1: Introduction

Plant Disease Epidemics

Some Concepts

Some Historical Developments

Prelude to the Rest of the Book

Possible Course Outlines

Suggested Readings

Chapter 2: Measuring Plant Diseases

Introduction

Plant Disease Intensity

Measurement Levels and Random Variables

Assessing Disease Intensity

Reliability, Accuracy, Agreement

Attributes and Properties of the Crop

Conclusion and Prelude to Following Chapters

Suggested Readings

Chapter 3: Introduction to Modeling in Epidemiology

Introduction

Models

Methods of Model Development

Fitting of Linear Models to Data

Fitting of Nonlinear Models to Data

Applications

Maximum Likelihood

Discussions and Prelude to Later Chapters

Suggested Readings

Chapter 4: Temporal Analysis I: Quantifying and Comparing Epidemics

Introduction

General Concepts

How Does an Epidemic Occur?

Models

Control

Model Fitting

Comparing Disease Progress Curves

Models with Maximum Disease Intensity as a Parameter

Time-Varying Rate Term

Concluding Comments and Prelude to Advanced Topics

Suggested Readings

Chapter 5: Temporal Analysis II: The Components of Disease

Introductions

Disease Progress Models with Fixed Density

Chapter 6: Temporal Analysis III: Advanced Topics

Introduction

Models with Crop Growth

The Role of Primary Infections

Epidemics with Vector Transmission

Transitional Dynamics and Other Complexities

Parameter Estimation

Suggested Readings

Chapter 7: Spatial Aspects of Epidemics – I: Pathogen Dispersal and Disease Gradients

Introduction

Dispersal Gradients, Disease Gradients, and Disease Spread

Models

Model Fitting

Disease Gradients – Correcting for Maximum Intensity

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Disease Spread

Disease Management

Concluding Comments and a Prelude to the Following Chapters

Selected Readings

Chapter 8: Spatial Aspects of Epidemics – II: A Theory of Spatio-Temporal Disease Dynamics

Introduction

Models for Spatial Populations Expansion

Some Extensions

An Application

Concluding Remarks

Selected Readings

Chapter 9: Spatial Aspects of Epidemics – III: Patterns of Plant Disease

Why We Look at Spatial Patterns

Terminology

Spatial Plant Disease Data

Analysis of Sparsely-Sampled Incidence Data

Analysis of Sparsely-Sampled Count Data

Relationships between Distributions

Spatial Hierarchies

Sparsely-Sampled Disease Severity Data

Analysis of Intensively-Mapped Disease Data

Spatial patterns and Dispersal Functions

Distance-Based Methods

Conclusions

Suggested Readings

Chapter 10: Estimating Plant Disease by Sampling

Why We Sample of Epidemiological Data

Sampling Preliminaries

Simple Random Sampling for Disease Incidence Data

Simple Random Sampling for Count Data

Cluster Sampling for Disease Incidence Data

Regression Analysis of Disease Incidence Data

Regression Analysis of Count Data

Group Testing with Incidence Data

Binomial Sampling for Count Data

Estimation of Disease Severity

Inverse Sampling for Disease Incidence

Sequential Estimation of Disease

Conclusions

Suggested Readings

Chapter 11: Decision-Making in the Practice of Plant Disease Management

Decision-Making Disease Management

Acceptance Sampling Preliminaries

Designing a Sampling Plan with a Specified Curve

Zero Acceptance Number Sampling Plans

Sequential Sampling for Classification

Risk Algorithms as a Basis for Decisions-Making

Predicting the Need for Treatment

Conclusion

Suggested Readings

Chapter Twelve: Epidemics and Crop Yield

Introductions

Definitions and Concepts

Data and Relationships

Modeling Yield in Relation to Disease

An Example Analysis

Mechanistic Approaches to Crop Loss Assessment

Spatial Heterogeneity

Discussion and Conclusions

Suggested Readings

References

Index

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